It's Monday night. The Steelers are playing the Broncos and are leading by a score of 21-10 with less than a minute to go. The Broncos are out of timeouts and Pittsburgh has the ball on the Broncos three yard line on a third down. There's very little tension in the air because the contest has already been decided. It would be near impossible for the Broncos to come back and win.
Option #1- In reality, all Pittsburgh has to do is get into victory formation, take the snap, kneel down on the ball, and let the clock run down to a few piddly seconds before taking the last snap. At best the Broncos would get the ball back within their own five yard line with ten seconds left, still down eleven points. Game over. Before I write down what actually happened, allow me give some other options for Pittsburgh on that third down and goal.
Option #2- Pittsburgh runs the ball up the middle with their best running back, Rashard Mendenhall, who bangs down to the one yard line, setting up fourth and goal where they run the same play. Score or not, Pittsburgh still wins the game.
Option #3- Ben Roethlisburger, the Steeler's QB fakes the handoff and runs a bootleg around the end for the score (or not.) Pittsburgh wins.
Option #4- Play action pass to the tight end in the back of the end zone for a score. If it's not open, QB takes the sack and the clock continues to run. Pittsburgh wins.
Option #5- The running back takes the direct snap from the center in a "Wildcat" formation and runs the ball into the end zone or gets stopped short. Time runs out. Pittsburgh wins.
Now I could go on and on with scenerios like this that are more likely than the one that played out, but here's what actually happened. Despite not needing to score again to secure the win, Roethlisburger takes the snap and throws a quick screen to veteran (euphemism for over the hill) receiver Hines Ward. Ward catches the ball on the three yard line, turns around to see a defender come at him to stop him short. This man at the end of his career (and more than a step slower than when he was in his prime) does his best high-hurdler imitation, jumping right over the tackler like a deer jumping a five-strand barbed-wire fence, and trotted into the end zone for the unnecessary score. I am a big Pittsburgh Steelers fan. Have been since 1978 when I was three, just old enough to start enjoying football. Steelers fans across the nation cheered wildly at the unexpected pass and score.
I screamed at the tv, "NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!"
Why? Simple: I play fantasy football, and my opponent had Hines Ward in his starting line up. Before that fateful play, I was winning my fantasy football game by a score of 70-64. Every time a fantasy football owner's player scores a touchdown, it counts as six points toward the FF owner's team score that week. When Hines Ward scored on that play, one of the last of the game, and decidedly unneeded, I went from a sure win to a tie. One seemingly inconsequential play in a seemingly inconsequential football game turned my night, and season around. Instead of my record moving from 5-3 to 6-3, my record now stands at 5-3-1. Instead of being one game out of first place (which is an automatic spot in the playoffs) and playing the team directly ahead of me in the standings for the lead in the division the next week, I now stand at one and one-half games behind the leader, and with only a few weeks left in the season, my playoff chances have taken a serious hit. Big deal, right? Not when you consider that the payout for first place is $150, which would be really nice going into the holiday season. Grrrrr.
The exact opposite fate befell me a few years back. Needing a touchdown from my running back Brian Westbrook to win my fantasy football playoff game for a spot in the finals (with a payout of $300 no less!) Westbrook took the handoff from the opponent's fifteen yard line, broke free and headed untouched for the end zone. I raised my hands and cheered "YES!" from the tops of my lungs, UNTIL...
I screamed at the tv "NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!"
See, there were only a few minutes left in the game for the Eagles. If they were to score, it would give their opponent an opportunity to get the ball back and try for the win. Westbrook knew all he needed was a first down so the Eagles could run out the clock. In what has been hailed as one of the smartest plays in NFL history, Westbrook slowed down and purposfully fell to his knees on the one yard line, one yard short of the touchdown. He was called down, the Eagles ran out the clock and won the game. And if he had been selfish like so many in the NFL and focused on his stats, he would have scored the touchdown, given me the six points, and I would have cruised into the championship game, much, much richer.
My buddy Kirk (who happens to be the one directly ahead of me in the standings) and I have a long-standing argument. He thinks that fantasy football is more about skill than luck. It is my contention that luck plays just as much a role in winning a fantasy football game as skill does. No matter who is right (I am) fate can sometimes have a cruel sense of humor. Boy how I love fantasy football.
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