March Sadness

Every year after the first weekend of the NCAA tournament I write up a second-chance bracket of the Sweet 16 teams and create a competition amongst my friends.  I do this because inevitably every year my original 64 (65, 68) team bracket is busted after the first two rounds.  Case in point, this year my first bracket on ESPN.com is currently ranked in the 15th percentile!  Egads!  It doesn't matter that I was depending on that $10,000 grand prize.  Instead, my wife is presently in the 99th percentile!  At one point she had picked 19 of the first 20 games right! 

Just how did she get there?  For example, she chose to pick St. John's opponent because St. John's sounded like wart removal medicine.  Why did she pick West Virginia in the first round?  Because the state of West Virginia looks like a frog jumping into water!

Now don't get the wrong idea.  She knows a lot more about college basketball than she lets on.  ESPN is on nearly every moment the television is on, so if she is in the room, she's absorbing information.  She reads the newspaper.  She has conversations with me about basketball that result in me talking about 90% of the time (hence she's listening, taking notes.)  She's a sponge.

That she is doing so well doesn't surprise me at all.  That I am biting the big one is quite frankly... sad.

So every year I fill out at least five brackets.  Here's my strategy (at the end I will be asking for yours!)

Bracket #1
This is my bracket that never does well because it is my original, first-instinct, emotional picks.  At this point I have looked over the tournament field maybe once, twice at most and I pick the teams I think should win each match up based on criteria I have collected over the year, like watching St. John's take out the entire Big East during a January stretch.  Yeah, that one worked out really well.  I don't do much research when it comes to match ups.  As I said before, this bracket is currently ranked in the 15th percentile.

Bracket #2
This is nearly identical to my first bracket, but I go out on a limb by picking some first round upsets that I didn't think of the first time.  I do a little more research here, and end up convincing myself that I know something that nobody else does.  Apparently I knew a little bit here because this bracket is currently in the 37th percentile.  Still pathetic.

Bracket #3
This is my wacky bracket.  In my first two brackets I have chosen my final four very carefully and not deviated one little bit.  This bracket is different.  I may keep one, possibly two of my final four picks, but I like to go on a limb and choose a few dark horses to make the final four.  I'm not talking George Mason in '05-like dark horses, but maybe a four or a five seed.  Think Arizona in 1997 (a four seed that took out maybe the best Kansas squad ever assembled and went on to win the whole thing.  Darn that Mike Bibby!)  Currently this one is my best bracket, ranked in the 88th percentile, but I moronically chose Purdue to beat Kansas, so it will be dropping sharply!

Bracket #4
This bracket is my "I'm so tired of spending time doing brackets, so I am just going to click randomly and see how it comes out" bracket.  I do make sure I put the for-sure wins in there, but the rest is just a crap shoot.  This year it came up snake eyes.  That's right; I'm in the 11th percentile.

Bracket #5
Bracket #5 is different from the first four brackets.  The first four I take care of in one exhaustive day.  This one I wait a few days to fill out.  I listen to all the experts give their commentary, I study match ups, trying to see the whole thing through new eyes, like re-reading a book that you put on a book shelf ten years ago when you only have a vague memory of what it is about.  Other than my first bracket, this is the one I have the most faith in.  I don't know why.  My percentile isn't even worth mentioning.

I have heard of other methods.  For example, one of my sister's brackets is a mascot competition!  For example, The Penn State Nitney Lions had no problem with the Temple Owls.  How cool is that?  Kentucky Wildcats v. Princeton Tigers would be a push.  The funny thing is that she says that it works better than legitimate picks.  By the way what the heck is a Tar Heel?

So, since I am so inept at my picks, what is your sure-fire method?  Feel free to share!